Changing State populations


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jayjay is offline jayjay Post #1  June 16,2010, 10:33pm
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...things seem to have gotten quiet around here.

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I was just looking at some projections for changes in the number of Congressional representatives that each State will have due to the 2010 census. These changes will also affect the number of electoral college votes each state will have in coming presidential elections.

Projected as likely gains:
Gaining 3 seats: Texas
Gaining 1 seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, Washington

Projected as likely losses:
Losing 1 seat: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Losing 2 seats: Ohio

Other possible changes:
California losing 1 seat
North Carolina gaining 1 seat

What do you see as being a) the causes for these changing demographics, and b) what will the possible political effects be.
 
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cp30 is offline cp30 Post #2  June 16,2010, 11:03pm

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Cp and Jayjay moved to Texas, naturally, everyone followed?
 
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jayjay is offline jayjay Post #3  June 16,2010, 11:15pm
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...things seem to have gotten quiet around here.

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cp30 wrote :
Cp and Jayjay moved to Texas, naturally, everyone followed?
I was just following you. lol
 
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Avalon1k is offline Avalon1k Post #4  June 16,2010, 11:19pm
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Wow...I left Washington and they gained a seat. Must be Microsoft.....
 
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jayjay is offline jayjay Post #5  June 17,2010, 12:20am
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...things seem to have gotten quiet around here.

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In looking at a 'Blue State/Red State' map I see that these changes sum up to (if my math is correct) a net change of 14 more seats/electoral votes from what currently exists from blue to red states (this based on a map that showed Ohio as a red state).
 
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WYskywatcher is offline WYskywatcher Post #6  June 17,2010, 5:27am
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1 Representative for my state. ONE! LOL! Don't see that number going up EVER.

After relocating to the middle of nowhere a few years ago, I had greater appreciation and understanding for the framers of the Constitution insisting on one chamber giving equal representation for all states.
 
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Can_I_just_be_Jo is offline Can_I_just_be_Jo Post #7  June 17,2010, 7:37am

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Texas is the easy one, they have implemented massive tort reform and changed their tax structure. The result is business is flocking their taking employees with them.

I am surprised California isn't losing a lot of seats. Not so sound like I own a foil hat but perhaps they weren't just counting citizens. They have lost a lot of businesses so the people should have followed......strange.
 
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dlc872 is offline dlc872 Post #8  June 17,2010, 8:21am
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Aging population, lots of folks retiring and moving to warmer areas.
 
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jayjay is offline jayjay Post #9  June 17,2010, 11:06am
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...things seem to have gotten quiet around here.

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I am surprised California isn't losing a lot of seats. Not so sound like I own a foil hat but perhaps they weren't just counting citizens. They have lost a lot of businesses so the people should have followed......strange.
I think that is a factor in TX as well. At least, the actual population is suspected to actually be quite a bit larger than the official one. For example, in my city it seems pretty obvious that there are a lot more people living here than what the official population of the city is.

Perhaps the immigrant (legal and illegal) population in CA is helping the population numbers there from falling as much as they might have otherwise. However, I saw an article recently that, in addition to other trends, CA population projections have been revised down due to Hispanics there having fewer children than expected.
 
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jayjay is offline jayjay Post #10  June 17,2010, 11:10am
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...things seem to have gotten quiet around here.

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dlc872 wrote :
Aging population, lots of folks retiring and moving to warmer areas.
Yes, it seems that quite a few baby boomers leave Northern states when they retire to move to a warmer climate. With the recent economic downturn I've heard that fewer of them are doing so, but that is something pretty recent that probably hasn't had a chance to create much of an effect yet.

Quite a few of the States that are gaining in representation are in the South. LA is an exception, but they had the whole Katrina crisis that likely had an effect. Washington is also an exception and CA seems like a State that is fairly balanced between warm and cooler climates.
 
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