We hear two stories - When do you think the recession started?

We've been in one for over a year now. I wouldn't trust any government report about economy.

Just FYI, the NBER is not a government organization. They are a private, non-profit, nonpartisan research organization.

I guess I leave a question like this to the economists. Aren't they the ones who define such things (not the "media")? The National Bureau of Economic Research (the body responsible for dating business cycles) says that the recession started 12/1/07, so I'm going to assume that they are expert enough to evaluate the data and determine that's the case. Are they the "some" who "say" whom you are referring to? Frankly, unless you can provide your credentials as an economist and convince me that that they exceed those of some of the country's leading experts in that field, I'm going to go with their determination...lol.


From the NBER website:


Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?[/b]
A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a range of indicators. Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology. Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates. The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in 2007 and 2008.