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awol71 wrote :
Whether we ever will be able to carry out the calculation is actually not very relevant to the conclusion (barring some as yet unsuspected physical forces at work). We can simplify the situation to :

1) You tell me that you have calculated (within the bounds of observational error) that I will raise my hand above my head in a few seconds.
2) I proceed not to do so.
Just have to stick my two cents in. This is a bad model to be basing any argument on.

Number 1: We are dealing with unknown future equipment that we don't know anything about. Such equipment could have serious limitations that need to be accounted for.

Number 2: There's no control group

Number 3: Humans are imperfect and therefore will always have a margin of irrationality to their behaviour.

Number 4: There's no stimulus you are reacting to. Why would you be raising your hand in the first place?

I don't see how anyone can argue for or against something based on the model.

--Tao
- August 3rd, 2009, 08:31 pm
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I look at the scientific method of understanding as a place to start learning from, god gave you the ability to formulate questions, listen to any kid ask 'why' and you'll see what I mean.
When the message is ' you gotta have faith ' nothing can be asked without being an insult to the teachings, and is therefore a deadend discussion, I would hope to ignite curoisity in those around me, so they can truely learn about this world, and be amazed..
- August 3rd, 2009, 08:59 pm
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awol71 wrote :
The problem itself is a very old one, to which the appearance of the sciences does not change much at all. In the olden days, people would argue amongst themselves whether one's behavior was completely determined by one's birth date and the movement of the stars (astrology!). We've just replaced astrology with neuroscience (and what not else), but from a logical perspective it's pretty much the same old question. Or is there something essentially different when science enters the picture?
Science utilizes the Scientific Method which I'm not going to explain in this thread because by now we should all be familiar with it. If you are unsure what that is and why it so respected as a model of observing and learning about the universe and all things there unto pertaining, then please look it up in a text book.

I'm certain that any student in the Neuroscience field (which uses the scientific method and peer review to ensure quality of data) would be greatly insulted by you comparing neuroscience or any other science to astrology. In fact the only scientists willing to even accept astrology as a science are advocates of intelligent design.

For more in depth on that see this VERY informative speech given by Professor of Biology Ken Miller as he speaks to an audience on Intelligent Design. YouTube - Ken Miller on Intelligent Design

awol71 wrote :
From a purely logical / rational perspective, the fact that science is more respectable than astrology nowadays is not significant at all.
I hope you are kidding...

awol71 wrote :
Is science more successful in its own domain? Surely! But even if a hammer is good for driving in a nail, it isn't necessarily good for eating cake. One would have to show that it is reasonable to have faith that science will one day be able to provide a scientific theory that convincingly rules out our "being in control of our actions". And notice that, in this case, a simple probabilistic theory does not suffice, since one way to account for statistical variations could be our "being in control of our actions".
A simple question: Do you not believe that you are in control of your own actions?

You're probably addressing the hand raising model. Which I've already stated that, in my opinion, is deeply flawed.

I'm not sure what cake you are trying to eat with a hammer. Perhaps in your example Life is the cake and Science is the hammer?

I would say that if Life is the Cake, Science is more like the electron microscope exploring the mysteries of the structure of the cake. Gleaning information on its composition and what temperatures it melts and freezes. It can't tell you the cake is delicious or is too sugary (I'm not a fan of cake icing) or that you don't like strawberry flavoring. That's up to you to decide. That's one of those personal preferences things that Religion falls into.

Now a Psychologist could probably study you a nice long time and predict within a percentile of error in what situations you will carry out a behavioral response. We don't need future technology for that. Only time and observation and the certainty that the observation isn't causing you to act unnaturally. Then he could publish his finding on the question (whatever that may be) he was studying and offer it up for peer review and see if other Psychologists get similar results.

Again anything dealing with human behavior offers up its share of challenges.

--Tao
- August 3rd, 2009, 09:00 pm
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awol71 wrote :
I doubt I would experience "bewilderment". (-;

Winks aside, concerning "being in control". if you were to control me in a sense that is inconsistent with my "being in control" under normal circumstances, then I would not be aware of it. I would actually feel in perfect control of myself.
I don't think that human behavior being deterministic or not can be answered, at least in the yay or nay; perhaps it is a matter of degrees and probability, just like everything else. It is exceedingly difficult to account for everything even in highly controled single particle systems (do we know what effect virtual particles have on the particle?)

One last thing, if I controlled a few of your neurons and caused you to turn one way or another, very likely you would create for yourself a rationalization as to why you were doing that particular behavior. Propaganda, brainwashing, advertising, politics, are all arts in controlling people's behavior; when you have been influenced to do something you will justify that action to yourself as though it were your own, rational decision. This is a form of rewriting history, a post explanation that leads you to think you must have made a rational decision beforehand, when in fact it was irrational, for no reason at all, except that an outside source punched the right buttons in your brain and your brain told you what to do, while your "mind" came up with an explanation for your behavior afterwards.
- August 3rd, 2009, 11:00 pm
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awol71 wrote :
Well, Weinberg is stretching things a bit. If you believe that you can win by cheating (not following the rules), then he is correct. I prefer to think that you have to argue rationally in order to win a rational argument. What I was saying was that those who refuse to do so don't pose a challenge (rationally). It is those who do argue rationally and try to have follow a consistent, rational religion, that do challenge us.
Those who think irrationally cannot concede when they have lost an argument; they do not and cannot see the rational point of view. The argument is rendered useless.

As for someone attempting to follow a purely rational religion, well, I think there are a lot of people trying to do that; I see them as similar to myself, having grown up amidst a baffling, irrational form of teaching, having believed much of it at one time, they are attempting to teach themselves how to think rationally, yet they are not quite ready to discard their religion, or they are not quite sure which parts need to be discarded and why. Some people find it easy to simply discard all things having to do with religion, thereby relieving themselves of the seemingly endless argumentation that is necessary when you try to hold onto pet religious ideas that have a kernel of baselessness attached to them. The ideas may make you feel really good, but beyond that, why exactly do you need to hold on to them?

Yes, religions can change, but religion requires belief in a deity, and some sort of ritualization or worship. Most of those who think rationally (as though scientifically), even if they entertain ideas of a deity, recognize the rituals and worship as irrational holdovers from a long-ago need for group identity, or something of the sort. In other words, their belief does not automatically translate as religion.

I would love to see more rationality in religion. It is a challenge to whoever chooses to do that because irrationality is a powerful and unmoveable opponent, and it is so appealing to an uninformed mind, being driven driven primarily by emotion.
- August 3rd, 2009, 11:21 pm
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awol71 wrote :
This is another case of "alternative explanations". One that says there is an intelligence at work behind the observable phenomena, and one that says there is not. Neither of which change anything to the observable phenomena anyway.

Either way we have a serious problem because our method of investigating the phenomena is rather limited.
I disagree that you can simply consider it a case of alternative explanations. Because our methods of investigating the phenomenon are limited, our explanations, for that reason, should also be limited; that is, we should impose limitations on the breadth of our explanation, so that it is a definable cause of a specific effect. Proposing an intelligence behind it all is unlimited, it explains everything without actually explaining anything.

When we wish to explain an effect we form a theory that is sufficiently matched to that effect. Science progresses one step at a time. Those who are trying to work on the "theory of everything" -- string theories -- know how difficult it is to find a single explanation for "all known effects." Saying an intelligence is behind it all doesn't actually explain anything. The intelligence must necessarily be exceedingly complex, replete with qualities, features, attributes, and powers, none of which we can conceivably describe or test. And it doesn't apply to any single "effect," or even a set of related "effects." The claim of intelligence is supposed to explain everything.

Additionally, the argument from design is very old. It began before Darwin, when theological scientists looked at the varieties of life and claimed that God must have designed each "kind" individually because they all look so "designed." We know now that Natural Selection produces apparent design automatically. This idea that God designed various "kinds" explains nothing, whereas Natural Selection explains speciation and the apparent design in life forms in entirely explainable and understandable terms.

Additionally, the argument from design keeps getting pushed back until we get to the Big Bang. There is no room any longer for God to have uniquely designed specific things "within" the universe, but at the point of its creation the question remains, what were the boundary conditions? Did they have to be one specific way, or could they have been chaotic? Is it really possible for the universe to simply spring into being from nothing, the way virtual particles come from nowhere? And if it's possible for one universe to do that, why shouldn't there be others? And if there are others, are they all different?

awol71 wrote :
Furthermore, our method of investigating phenomena directly rules out the question of any "intelligence behind it all" because we realize fully well that there is no way to properly quantify what "intelligence" actually is. Which is another way of saying that you can never find it, in a scientific sense : how do you "look for intelligence"?
Quite right, it isn't pertinent to the scientific process. Unless someone stumbles upon a real, unmistakable message implanted in the laws of physics, similar to Carl Sagan's idea of the circle encoded in the number Pi in his book, "Contact." (But I would question even that.)

awol71 wrote :
"What can I infer from what is actually happening in front of my nose right now in 'physical' terms?" has proved pretty useful so far in that restricted domain.
This is the only domain in which science deals.

awol71 wrote :
And what about the other questions, like, "Where did this physical domain come from?" Or, "What is its purpose?" Etc. etc. Questions that are, by their very nature, outside of the "physical domain".
Where did we come from is not necessarily outside of the domain. What is its purpose is, or rather, has no meaning with respect to what can be known. So why ask it?

We have a billion more years of good sunlight on earth. The universe may have 50 or 100 billion more useful years. Then comes the long, long night. The last remaining black holes will be evaporating in 10 to the 600 years. There is nothing we know of that can give you an idea of how big that number is. What is its purpose? If it has a purpose at all it is simply to exist. Nothing more can be said than that.

awol71 wrote :
...it is not an application of the investigative (scientific) process at all. It is another process altogether, which is not necessarily irrational. It can be the same rational process that we frequently use in the courtrooms and constantly in our everyday lives, where we have to deal with vague concepts and extremely complex, high-level, phenomena (for which no complete physical description is forthcoming) in a non-scientific way.

And yet, despite these limitations, some peolpe need to have an answer to the question : Is there or is there not an intelligence behind it all? Yes or No! And so they choose one. As far as I can tell, no side has proven their point convincingly, much less "beyond the shadow of a doubt".
This would make it a matter of personal taste or opinion, and therefore not science. I said it was a misapplication of the scientific process because there are some wealthy groups trying to get this stuff taught in high school science classes, and they are trying to corrupt the teaching of evolution as a validated fact. This is where it is a misapplication. It should not be done in this context. It is not a matter of needing to prove it; it doesn't belong in science because it is a misapplication of the scientific process (a distortion or perversion of the process).


awol71 wrote :
...Which facts clearly demonstrate that there can be no intelligence behind the universe? The fact that we can come up with another (also rational but still very incomplete) explanation, based on the assumption that there is no intelligence?
The proposal that an intelligence is behind the universe is not rational: the question does not logically follow from simply observing effects in the universe: there are no effects for which a clearly defined cause is being proposed. The word "intelligence" could be replaced by almost any word of your choosing without changing the irrationality of the proposal. The same "every effect in the universe" would be explained to the same degree by the new "fantasy attribute-laden dohicky word." The word "intelligence" carries no meaning in this context. Therefore, it cannot be used.

The word "intelligence" can be used in reference to living organisms which have brains. There are varying degrees of this kind of intelligence. It is the only intelligence we know of. It is the only intelligence we are able to refer to. It can be examined, investigated, experimented upon, quantified, qualified, measured, labeled, defined. It can be, practically speaking, clearly understood.

Your use of the word "intelligence" as the cause of the universe cannot be understood. Nothing can be known about it. It cannot be tested, observed, measured, experimented upon, or defined. It is meaningless to refer to it.

Could it be that your liking of this intelligence idea relates, if subconsciously, to your wish to encapsulate a definable role or purpose for yourself and humanity? or for life in general? But like the universe, life has no purpose, except to exist. Life is like a thin fungus or mold that sometimes infects planets and coats their sufaces with an almost invisible tarnished sheen. It doesn't seem to be all that important in the scheme of the universe overall. Galaxies, and empty space itself, seem to the be real players in the game. But that, too, is just a perception.



awol71 wrote :
My point is that when you "look in the Bible to find out how old the Earth is", you are not going to find a serious answer (logically, this would be a pure argument from authority, which has very little strength, unless you can establish the authority). But when you ask whether god exists "physically", you get an equally spurious answer ("We can't see him.")
But your only reason for asking the question of whether god exists comes from this same Bible (an argument from authority, which has very little strength). If it were not for the existence of the Bible and all the other religions, you would not be asking the question. The question you should be asking is, "why should we hold on to such an idea?"

Now, if you want to form a rational religion, your job is to figure out what can be figured out rationally, without referring to the Bible, and correlating this with those things that are in the Bible, keeping those, and discarding the rest (or at least teaching that those other things stem from irrational, unsupported thinking and do not represent an accurate portrait of humanity or reality.) But my question would be, why not just go straight for the rationality and dispense with the religion altogether? Unless you want to help others within the religion to learn to think rationally. This, actually, wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
- August 4th, 2009, 12:34 am
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Your new religion would need some kind of ritual. All religions have rituals... people like that. It would also have to be easy and in the end you have to promise something for your followers trouble... perhaps chocolate? Naw... not good enough... how about everlasting chocolate?
- August 4th, 2009, 11:42 am
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Just a few remarks, shoelace. As you probably suspect, I agree with most of what you say. My point of disagreement is the same as always. Sometimes, you seem to agree...

shoelace wrote :
Quite right, it isn't pertinent to the scientific process.
This is the only domain in which science deals.
What is its purpose is, or rather, has no meaning with respect to what can be known.
This would make it a matter of personal taste or opinion, and therefore not science.
Now, I made a silly mistake which probably didn't help at all...

shoelace wrote :
I disagree that you can simply consider it a case of alternative explanations.
You are completely right, as I realized later, it was a very poor choice of words on my part. As I said elsewhere, they (science and religion) don't (shouldn't) provide competing answers to the same questions. There are scientific questions, to which we should give scientific answers; and there are religious questions, to which we should give religious answers. Sometimes, the easy way to say it is not the right way!

But, back to the point.

If you only admit of scientific explanations, then you just define god out of existence (because the scientific process simply "does not do god questions"). This is a choice and a definition, a rejection of the question altogether, not a proof.

shoelace wrote :
Unless someone stumbles upon a real, unmistakable message implanted in the laws of physics
As an aside, as far as I understand science, there can be no such thing as an unmistakable message of this kind. To people who are swayed by the "teleological argument" (order, purpose, intelligence, etc.), they will tell you that this purpose (which they see and you don't) is an unmistakable message. In the scientific domain, all things are explained through the scientific process and this process simply rules out "god" as a valid explanation. No matter what we found, we would look for some other explanation.

shoelace wrote :
What is its purpose? If it has a purpose at all it is simply to exist. Nothing more can be said than that.
But like the universe, life has no purpose, except to exist.
You need to prove this. Saying that there is no purpose is an answer, as is saying that the purpose is "simply to exist" (and I don't get what this means to you at all : usually this is just a polite way to reject the question). It is not the same thing as saying that the question is meaningless. And don't bother telling me there is no scientific answer : I already know that. When (rationally) religious people address the question of purpose, meaning, intelligence, it is not taken as a scientific question.

shoelace wrote :
But my question would be, why not just go straight for the rationality and dispense with the religion altogether?
This is basically what a rational religion amounts to, in some sense. A very personal and responsible religion. I think you understand that concept. A rational religion is an incentive for those who need it ("what we can hope for" as Kant once said). It is not an excuse to kill people. And why do some folks need it? Different people need it for different reasons. The social sciences will likely provide a variety of answers eventually. People will just say, I feel better "knowing" this.

The important question is : should they not be allowed to believe what they wish, as long as it doesn't cause any problems? Can you demonstrate that even a completely rational religion that makes no claims of a scientific nature necessarily has some really bad effects? (Or, alternatively, that a completely rational religion is impossible?) I can already tell you that some psychological tests have observed a correlation between the absence of "faith / religious beliefs / sense of purpose" with a lower degree of happiness in individuals.

shoelace wrote :
Unless you want to help others within the religion to learn to think rationally. This, actually, wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
It would be a great thing!

P.S.: Everlasting carrot cake gets my vote over chocolate.
- August 4th, 2009, 05:19 pm
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Don't worry, TaoShaffer, I am well aware of what the scientific method is. I am well aware of textbook explanations as well as many others (Popper and Kuhn, for example, and even more obscure contributors such as Lakatos and Feyerabend).

TaoShaffer wrote :
I hope you are kidding...
No, I am not. And no scientist who understands what logical form is will disagree with this. The logical form of the argument is :

There is (a body of knowledge) that suggests, but cannot demonstrate conclusively, that our actions are not "under our control". We have faith in (this body of knowledge) because of its achievements, and we are convinced that eventually it will be able to make such a demonstration. Therefore, our actions are not under our control.

As you can plainly see, from a purely logical perspective (which has to to with the form of the argument and not its content), the body of knowledge itself is irrelevant. What you are questioning, and quite rightly, is the second premiss, which we all (I hope!) feel is no longer appropriate when applied to astrology.

TaoShaffer wrote :
A simple question: Do you not believe that you are in control of your own actions?
I believe this is a "religious question". And, being a sort of agnostic, I have no answer.

TaoShaffer wrote :
You're probably addressing the hand raising model. Which I've already stated that, in my opinion, is deeply flawed.
Ok. Let me address those objections in passing.

TaoShaffer wrote :
Number 1: We are dealing with unknown future equipment that we don't know anything about. Such equipment could have serious limitations that need to be accounted for.
Actually, although the argument sounds so much cooler when it uses unknown future equipment, you will notice that the simplified version uses the incredibly well known and backward tool known as a coin.

TaoShaffer wrote :
Number 2: There's no control group
It is not a clinical trial. Why do we need a control group?

TaoShaffer wrote :
Number 3: Humans are imperfect and therefore will always have a margin of irrationality to their behaviour.
The conclusion of the argument is that human actions are not completely determined by either completely deterministic laws or completely random phenomena or a mixture of both. Is this what you mean by "imperfect" and "irrational"? If so, it is bad form to assume the conclusion. If not, what do you mean? That we make mistakes? How exactly does this pose a problem to the argument?

TaoShaffer wrote :
Number 4: There's no stimulus you are reacting to. Why would you be raising your hand in the first place?
The stimulus was left to the imagination of the reader. You can easily replace the action with something you like better. The only requirement is that the argument must be kept consistent. Your objection is only valid if you can show that nothing whatsoever can make the experiment work.

Now, back to the second post.

The hammer and cake were just to say that they (science and religion) don't (shouldn't) provide competing answers to the same questions. There are scientific questions, to which we should give scientific answers; and there are religious questions, to which we should give religious answers.

TaoShaffer wrote :
Now a Psychologist could probably study you (...)
This is all well and good. But how does it tie in? Does it have to do with what shoelace points out, that there is plenty of evidence out there (brainwashing, psychology, psychiatry, psychoanalyisis, etc.), and which I already alluded to (being under the influence, etc.) that we are clearly not all in complete control all the time.
- August 4th, 2009, 06:05 pm
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